Sustainable Manufacturing Systems for Uncertainty and Shock Scenarios: A Systems Engineering-Based Approach to Robust Design and Resilience Assessment

Abstract

Global manufacturing systems are confronting severe challenges from escalating uncertainties and shock events, such as geopolitical conflicts, pandemics, and climate change. Traditional paradigms for designing sustainable manufacturing systems have demonstrated significant vulnerability in coping with these dynamic disturbances. To address this issue, this paper proposes a systems engineering framework that integrates robust design and resilience assessment. The framework adapts and extends the macro-micro design cycle model, aiming to systematically enhance the adaptive and restorative capacities of manufacturing systems in uncertain environments. The macro-cycle of the framework defines the full lifecycle stages, from cognition and scenario definition, through robust architecture design and domain-specific resilience design, to resilience assessment and validation. The micro-cycle provides an iterative process for optimizing resilience solutions at each stage. This paper employs a case study of a New Energy Vehicle (NEV) power battery manufacturing system, simulating shock scenarios such as critical raw material supply disruptions and abrupt trade policy shifts using a system dynamics model. The results indicate that the framework can effectively guide enterprises in identifying systemic vulnerabilities and designing manufacturing systems that are simultaneously economically and environmentally sustainable and highly resilient. The case study quantifies the improvement effects of different robust strategies (e.g., supply chain diversification, flexible manufacturing) on system resilience (e.g., recovery time, production capacity loss). This research provides a theoretical model and practical guidance for building sustainable and resilient manufacturing systems in complex, dynamic environments. Its primary theoretical contribution lies in the systematic integration of robust design, resilience assessment, and sustainability objectives within a unified systems engineering framework.