Robust Optimal Dispatch of Park-Level Integrated Energy Systems Towards Carbon Neutrality: A Synergistic Strategy Based on Stepped Carbon Trading and Integrated Demand Response

摘要

A two-stage robust optimal dispatch model is proposed for park-level integrated energy systems with high wind and photovoltaic penetration. The model integrates stepped carbon trading, integrated demand response, battery energy storage, and thermal energy storage to improve low-carbon and economic operation under renewable energy uncertainty. A budgeted polyhedral uncertainty set is used to characterize wind and photovoltaic output deviations, and the resulting min–max–min optimization problem is decomposed into a mixed-integer linear master problem and subproblem using the column-and-constraint generation algorithm. A numerical case study based on representative winter profiles of an industrial park in northern China is conducted to evaluate the proposed strategy. Compared with the baseline deterministic dispatch case, the proposed method reduces carbon emissions by 15.4% and total operating cost by 12.3% under the specified parameter settings and uncertainty budget. The results indicate that the coordination of stepped carbon trading, demand-side flexibility, and robust dispatch can enhance the economic performance, carbon reduction capability, and renewable energy accommodation of park-level integrated energy systems. The study provides a case-based modeling framework for low-carbon robust dispatch, while further validation with long-period operational data is still required.